Technological innovation and diffusion of wind power in Japan

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the diffusion of wind power in Japan by focusing on the value chain and the interaction between technology and markets and to contribute towards recommendations on technology policy and management. This paper proposes a framework for analyzing the early stage diffusion of wind power systems by combining the use of several approaches considering wind power system as a complex technological system. Firstly, the business system approach is used as an analytical framework by focusing on efficiency, effectiveness and development criteria. As a second approach, the technological trajectory was analyzed based on the concept of technological disequilibrium and the evolutionary patterns of innovation of wind power generation systems were analyzed and the relationship between innovations at the sub-system, modular, and system level was identified. We apply the framework to investigate why wind power diffusion has not picked up momentum in Japan.The results include the following: (1) Technological imbalances within the product system were solved by technological innovation (2) The wind power business in Japan is insufficiently effective due to organizational disequilibrium (3) The technology system has begun to evolve in the direction of micro grid systems. (4) It is important to consider the demand-pull measures for wind power generation so that Japanese institution can have a “time slot” for ”learning by doing” to catch up and accelerate diffusion of wind power generation, including institutional reform of RPS law. Also further technological development related to stabilizing unstable wind energy is required.     

Information in generalized method of moments estimation and entropy-based moment selection

In this paper, we make five contributions to the literature on information and entropy in generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation. First, we introduce the concept of the long run canonical correlations (LRCCs) between the true score vector and the moment function f(_vt,_θ0)$f(v_t,{\theta }_0)$ and show that they provide a metric for the information contained in the population moment condition E[f(_vt,_θ0)]=0$\mathrm{E}[f(v_t,{\theta }_0)]=0$. Second, we show that the entropy of the limiting distribution of the GMM estimator can be written in terms of these LRCCs. Third, motivated by the above results, we introduce an information criterion based on this entropy that can be used as a basis for moment selection. Fourth, we introduce the concept of nearly redundant moment conditions and use it to explore the connection between redundancy and weak identification. Fifth, we analyse the behaviour of the aforementioned entropy-based moment selection method in two scenarios of interest; these scenarios are: (i) nonlinear dynamic models where the parameter vector is identified by all the combinations of moment conditions considered; (ii) linear static models where the parameter vector may be weakly identified for some of the combinations considered. The first of these contributions rests on a generalized information equality that is proved in the paper, and may be of interest in its own right.     

THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOW WITH TARIFF-RIDDEN AND QUOTA-RESTRICTED IMPORTS*

The welfare effects of foreign capital inflow and changes in the foreign price and tariff rate of a tariff-ridden imported good are considered for a small country for both 3 times 2 and 3 times 3 trade models with a quota-restricted imported good (whose special case is a nontraded good). For the 3 times 2 model, foreign capital inflow does not affect home welfare when there is no tariff on imports, but it harms the home country if a tariff is imposed on the imports to the extent that the tariff-ridden imported good is more capital intensive than the exported good. On the other hand, for the 3 times 3 model the foreign-capital inflow benefits the home country if the tariff rate is below a certain level under the analogous capital-intensity assumptions. The welfare effects of changes in the foreign price of the tariff-ridden good and its tariff rate remain the same for both models.     

The Choice of Accounting Policy In Japan

The purpose of this study is to investigate factors which potentially influence Japanese managers' choices of accounting policies. Several factors have been posed to affect the choice of accounting policy of U.S. managers (e.g., Watts and Zimmerman's (1986) positive accounting theory). However, the general business characteristics of the U.S. environment differ, sometimes drastically, from those in Japan. Factors affecting the choice of accounting policy in the U.S. may not similarly affect the choice of accounting policy in Japan. At the same time, new factors may be identified in the Japanese business environment.
Income strategy models are developed for each firm according to the type (income increasing or income decreasing) of accounting policies employed. The results suggest that both the size and debt/equity hypotheses are significant, even for keiretsu firms. These results are surprising given (1) the close relationship between firms and the government, (2) regulations of the commercial code which serve to protect the interests of debtholders, and (3) the tight relationship between banks and firms within keiretsu groups which protects firms from bankruptcy and takeover. Variables representing firms' effective tax rate, ability to finance operations internally, and foreign political costs are also shown to significantly affect Japanese managers' choices of accounting policy. The bonus hypothesis is not significant in the Japanese environment. Furthermore, the choice of accounting policy is explained more by individual firm characteristics than by keiretsu membership or industry membership.     

A utility representation theorem with weaker continuity condition

We prove that a mixture continuous preference relation has a utility representation if its domain is a convex subset of a finite dimensional vector space. Our condition on the domain of a preference relation is stronger than Eilenberg (1941) and Debreu (1959, 1964), but our condition on the continuity of a preference relation is strictly weaker than the usual continuity assumed by them.     

An Emergency Evacuation Planning Model Using the Universally Quickest Flow

In recent years, catastrophic disasters by massive earthquakes have been increasing in the world, and disaster management is required more than ever. In the case of disasters such as tsunamis, a slight delay in evacuation may deprive evacuees of life. In this article, we formalize the emergency evacuation planning model for evacuation from tsunamis and other disasters based on the idea of the universally quickest flow. We show that there does not always exist a universally quickest flow when the capacity constraint of refuges is taken into account. Therefore, we propose an alternative criterion that approximates a universally quickest flow, and presents an algorithm for finding an optimal flow for this criterion. Numerical experiments are carried out for the evacuation of a local city in Japan where tsunami damages are assumed to occur when a large earthquake occurs in the ocean nearby.     

Inference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models

Skepticism toward traditional identifying assumptions based on exclusion restrictions has led to a surge in the use of structural VAR models in which structural shocks are identified by restricting the sign of the responses of selected macroeconomic aggregates to these shocks. Researchers commonly report the vector of pointwise posterior medians of the impulse responses as a measure of central tendency of the estimated response functions, along with pointwise 68% posterior error bands. It can be shown that this approach cannot be used to characterize the central tendency of the structural impulse response functions. We propose an alternative method of summarizing the evidence from sign-identified VAR models designed to enhance their practical usefulness. Our objective is to characterize the most likely admissible model(s) within the set of structural VAR models that satisfy the sign restrictions. We show how the set of most likely structural response functions can be computed from the posterior mode of the joint distribution of admissible models both in the fully identified and in the partially identified case, and we propose a highest-posterior density credible set that characterizes the joint uncertainty about this set. Our approach can also be used to resolve the long-standing problem of how to conduct joint inference on sets of structural impulse response functions in exactly identified VAR models. We illustrate the differences between our approach and the traditional approach for the analysis of the effects of monetary policy shocks and of the effects of oil demand and oil supply shocks.     

Tests of cointegrating rank with a trend-break

The conventional testing procedure may mislead one into accepting the null of no cointegration or the null of a cointegrating rank smaller than the true rank when there is a trend-break under the alternative hypothesis. This paper proposes tests for cointegrating rank that have power against the trend-break alternative. The proposed tests are applied to the US money demand function. The results support the Campbell–Perron conjecture: money, income and interest rates are cointegrated around a broken trend.